Neurons can display highly variable dynamics.

Notably, modern tools for the verification of hybrid automata are designed formodels thatrarely haveoverhundred discrete states [7],while arbitrary meshes grow exponentially as the granularity increases.

Subseasonal forecasting of the weather two to six weeks in advance is critical for resource allocation and advance disaster notice but poses many challenges for the forecasting community.

We present a novel method for the safety verification of nonlinear dynamical models that uses neural networks to represent abstractions of their dynamics. Neural networks have extensively been used before as approximators; in this work, we make a step further and use them for the first time as abstractions. For a given dynamical model, our method synthesises a neural network that overapproximates its dynamics by ensuring an arbitrarily tight, formally certified bound on the approximation error. For this purpose, we employ a counterexample-guided inductive synthesis procedure. We show that this produces a neural ODE with non-deterministic disturbances that constitutes a formal abstraction of the concrete model under analysis. This guarantees a fundamental property: if the abstract model is safe, i.e., free from any initialised trajectory that reaches an undesirable state, then the concrete model is also safe. By using neural ODEs with ReLU activation functions as abstractions, we cast the safety verification problem for nonlinear dynamical models into that of hybrid automata with affine dynamics, which we verify using SpaceEx. We demonstrate that our approach performs comparably to the mature tool Flow* on existing benchmark nonlinear models. We additionally demonstrate and that it is effective on models that do not exhibit local Lipschitz continuity, which are out of reach to the existing technologies.

Subseasonal forecasting of the weather two to six weeks in advance is critical for resource allocation and climate adaptation but poses many challenges for the forecasting community. At this forecast horizon, physics-based dynamical models have limited skill, and the targets for prediction depend in a complex manner on both local weather variables and global climate variables. Recently, machine learning methods have shown promise in advancing the state of the art but only at the cost of complex data curation, integrating expert knowledge with aggregation across multiple relevant data sources, file formats, and temporal and spatial resolutions.To streamline this process and accelerate future development, we introduce SubseasonalClimateUSA, a curated dataset for training and benchmarking subseasonal forecasting models in the United States. We use this dataset to benchmark a diverse suite of models, including operational dynamical models, classical meteorological baselines, and ten state-of-the-art machine learning and deep learning-based methods from the literature. Overall, our benchmarks suggest simple and effective ways to extend the accuracy of current operational models.

In the literature, there are two different forms of dynamic regret.

Reduced-order models (ROMs) can efficiently simulate high-dimensional physical systems but lack robust uncertainty quantification methods. Existing approaches are frequently architecture- or training-specific, which limits flexibility and generalization. We introduce a post hoc, model-agnostic framework for predictive uncertainty quantification in latent space ROMs that requires no modification to the underlying architecture or training procedure. Using conformal prediction, our approach estimates statistical prediction intervals for multiple components of the ROM pipeline: latent dynamics, reconstruction, and end-to-end predictions. We demonstrate the method on a latent space dynamical model for cloud microphysics, where it accurately predicts the evolution of droplet-size distributions and quantifies uncertainty across the ROM pipeline.

Discovering the antecedents of individuals' influence in collaborative environments is an important, practical, and challenging problem. In this paper, we study interpersonal influence in small groups of individuals who collectively execute a sequence of intellective tasks. We observe that along an issue sequence with feedback, individuals with higher expertise and social confidence are accorded higher interpersonal influence. We also observe that low-performing individuals tend to underestimate their high-performing teammate's expertise. Based on these observations, we introduce three hypotheses and present empirical and theoretical support for their validity. We report empirical evidence on longstanding theories of transactive memory systems, social comparison, and confidence heuristics on the origins of social influence. We propose a cognitive dynamical model inspired by these theories to describe the process by which individuals adjust interpersonal influences over time. We demonstrate the model's accuracy in predicting individuals' influence and provide analytical results on its asymptotic behavior for the case with identically performing individuals. Lastly, we propose a novel approach using deep neural networks on a pre-trained text embedding model for predicting the influence of individuals. Using message contents, message times, and individual correctness collected during tasks, we are able to accurately predict individuals' self-reported influence over time. Extensive experiments verify the accuracy of the proposed models compared to baselines such as structural balance and reflected appraisal model. While the neural networks model is the most accurate, the dynamical model is the most interpretable for influence prediction.